Updated: 17 September 2026 la 11:18. Articolul a fost revizuit pentru a reflecta informațiile disponibile la această dată.
The Danube is going through one of the most difficult hydrological periods of recent decades. On Sunday, 16 August 2026, the river’s flow as it enters Romania, at the Baziaș section, was only 1,400 cubic metres per second, while the long-term August average is approximately 3,900 m³/s.
That means the Danube is currently carrying only around 36% of the volume of water corresponding to the August average or, put another way, its flow is roughly 64% below the usual level.
And the forecast for the coming days does not point to a rapid recovery.
The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (INHGA) estimates a decline to around 1,350 m³/s on 17 August, followed by values around that level and then a further drop towards 1,300 m³/s by 23 August.
The situation could have consequences far beyond a simple drop in water levels: energy production, agriculture, irrigation, river transport and the Danube’s ecosystems are all exposed.
The Danube is at just 1,400 m³/s, against an average of 3,900 m³/s
Official data from 16 August show:
- flow at Baziaș: 1,400 m³/s;
- long-term August average: 3,900 m³/s;
- the current flow represents around 36% of the average;
- the gap from the average is around 64%;
- a decline to 1,350 m³/s is forecast for 17 August;
- by 23 August, the flow could fall to 1,300 m³/s.
INHGA also reports that flows are declining downstream of the Iron Gates.
At a flow of 1,300 m³/s, the Danube would be at only one-third of the long-term August average.
The situation is worse than in July
The problems did not begin in August.
Around 20 July, the Danube’s flow at Romania’s entry point had fallen to approximately 1,700 m³/s, compared with a July average of 4,700 m³/s. Reuters reported at the time that levels had reached their lowest in Romania in around 30 years.
Now, the flow has reached just 1,400 m³/s, and the forecast points to even lower values.
As a result, the hydrological drought episode is not only persisting, but is continuing to put pressure on systems that depend on the Danube.
Cernavodă is already among the casualties of the Danube’s low level
The most visible consequence is already affecting the National Energy System.
The extreme fall in the Danube’s level forced Nuclearelectrica to shut down the two Cernavodă units in succession, as the plant needs Danube water for cooling-related systems.
The two reactors have a capacity of approximately 706 MW each and together normally provide around 20% of Romania’s electricity generation.
Before the last reactor was shut down, the authorities resorted to exceptional measures: dredging the riverbed, carrying out controlled detonations to remove obstacles, and using rock-laden barges to redirect water towards the plant area.
For context, see InfoBuz’s analysis of the possible shutdown of Cernavodă’s last reactor and the risk of power outages.
See LIVE how the National Energy System is affected
The effects of the drought can also be tracked through the structure of electricity generation.
On InfoBuz, you can check Romania’s electricity generation, consumption and energy mix in near real time, including hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, coal and hydrocarbons, as well as electricity imports and exports.
The Energy and Sun Romania dashboard is especially relevant at this time because it shows how the National Energy System is trying to compensate for the temporary loss of nuclear generation.
Romania is already in a difficult energy period, also examined in the article Romania has entered an energy alert: is there a risk of power outages in August 2026?
Hydropower may be affected at the same time
One problem with this crisis is that drought does not affect nuclear energy alone.
Flows on many of Romania’s rivers are also below normal levels. According to the hydrological situation report of 16 August, river flows generally stand at between 30% and 90% of the long-term monthly averages, while values are below 30% in numerous river basins.
This may also limit hydropower potential.
Romania could therefore find itself in a situation where two of its major low-emission energy sources—nuclear power and hydropower—are simultaneously affected by the same phenomenon: a lack of water.
Navigation on the Danube is becoming increasingly difficult
Low water levels also have direct consequences for river transport.
As early as July, Reuters reported:
- sandbanks becoming visible;
- ferry services being suspended;
- grain-carrying barges being left stranded;
- disruptions to navigation and tourism on the Danube.
At very low levels, vessels can no longer carry the same volume of cargo because their draught must be reduced.
For a country such as Romania, which uses the Danube and the Port of Constanța for grain exports and freight transport, the economic effects could become significant if the situation persists.
Agriculture and irrigation are another concern
Hydrological drought also affects agriculture.
In south-eastern Romania, farmers have already faced restrictions on access to irrigation water amid the Danube’s decline.
The problem comes at a sensitive time for summer crops.
Maize, sunflower and other crops need water during important stages of development, while very high temperatures accelerate evaporation from the soil.
Across Europe, drought and heat have already begun affecting agricultural production estimates, and analysts warn that a dry August in Romania could also limit the potential of some crops there.
The situation is also directly linked to the heatwave that affected Romania in August 2026.
Is there a risk to public water supplies?
A very low Danube flow does not automatically mean that residents will be left without drinking water.
Supply systems have different infrastructure and procedures, and the situation must be assessed locally.
However, a continuing drought increases pressure on all water reserves, especially where river, lake and groundwater levels are already low.
INHGA data show that many rivers across the country are significantly below their monthly averages, confirming the widespread nature of the hydrological deficit.
What needs to happen for the Danube to recover
A significant recovery does not necessarily depend on a few hours of heavy rain in Romania.
The Danube collects water from a vast drainage basin spanning much of Central and Eastern Europe.
Persistent rainfall upstream, and how it travels downstream towards Romania, are particularly important.
At present, INHGA’s forecast for 16–23 August does not indicate a recovery, but the exact opposite: a gradual decline from approximately 1,400 to 1,300 m³/s.
This is one of the most important signals for the period ahead.
What happens if the flow reaches 1,300 m³/s
If the forecast is confirmed, the flow at Baziaș would represent only around 33% of the August average.
Pressure could continue on:
nuclear power → hydropower → navigation → agriculture → irrigation → aquatic ecosystems.
Not all of these sectors will be affected to the same extent, but the longer the period of low flows lasts, the greater the risk of knock-on economic effects.
Romania is not the only country affected
The Danube crisis is regional.
Hungary has had to sharply reduce output at the Paks nuclear power plant because of the river’s low level, while Danube transport has been affected in several countries.
The problems are part of a wider drought affecting Europe, which has hit energy production, agriculture, transport and water supply.
For more information on agriculture, see Europe is drying up: drought hits the Danube, the Rhine, agriculture and energy production, which provides complementary details on this issue.
InfoBuz has also analysed the extreme heatwave affecting Europe and energy infrastructure.
Conclusion: the next few days are decisive
As of 16 August 2026, the Danube’s flow at its entry point into Romania is only 1,400 m³/s, against the long-term August average of 3,900 m³/s.
The difference is enormous: the current flow is approximately 64% lower than average.
And the situation could deteriorate.
The official forecast indicates approximately 1,350 m³/s in the first part of the period, falling to 1,300 m³/s towards 23 August.
Romania is already feeling the effects through the shutdown of the Cernavodă reactors, limits on some irrigation activities and disrupted navigation.
That is why the key question is no longer whether the Danube’s low level is having effects, but how long this situation will continue and how much further the flow will fall before a sustained recovery emerges.
Frequently asked questions about the Danube’s low level
What is the Danube’s flow on 16 August 2026?
The Danube’s flow at Romania’s entry point, at the Baziaș section, is approximately 1,400 m³/s, compared with the long-term August average of 3,900 m³/s.
How far below the August average is the Danube’s flow?
The current flow is approximately 64% below the long-term average, meaning the Danube is currently carrying only around 36% of the average flow typical for August.
Will the Danube continue to fall?
The hydrological forecast for 16–23 August indicates a slight decline. The flow could reach approximately 1,350 m³/s and, towards the end of the period, approximately 1,300 m³/s.
Why is the Danube’s level so low?
The main causes are prolonged drought, high temperatures and a rainfall deficit in the Danube drainage basin. The situation depends not only on precipitation in Romania, but also on rainfall in upstream countries.
Can the Danube’s low level affect electricity?
Yes. The low level has already contributed to the shutdown of the Cernavodă nuclear reactors. Drought can also affect hydropower generation at the same time, increasing reliance on other sources and on electricity imports.
Is navigation on the Danube affected?
Yes. Very low levels can limit vessel draught and the volume of cargo transported. This summer has already seen disruptions to river transport, suspensions of some ferry services and problems for grain barges.
Can agriculture be affected?
Yes. Reduced flow can limit the availability of irrigation water, while drought and high temperatures simultaneously increase crops’ water needs.
Is there a risk that residents will be left without water?
Low Danube flow does not automatically mean a disruption to water supply. The situation depends on each locality’s water sources and infrastructure, although a continuing drought can place additional pressure on water reserves.
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