A powerful El Niño episode is strengthening and threatens to worsen the food crisis in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions. Droughts, floods, extreme temperatures and shifts in normal rainfall patterns could affect crops, pastureland, livestock and communities’ access to water.
The World Meteorological Organization says that El Niño will continue to strengthen between August and October 2026 and will influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide. The effects will not be the same in every region: some areas may experience severe drought, while others may face excessive rainfall and flooding.
The latest analysis by the World Food Programme estimates that this episode could push at least 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. The projection is not a certainty, but a risk scenario based on the effects of previous El Niño episodes, current vulnerabilities and climate forecasts.
For more information on drought, see also Could Cernavodă shut down its last operating reactor on 13 August: is there a risk of power outages in Romania?, which provides additional details on the subject.
El Niño could reach peak intensity in late 2026
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon alters atmospheric circulation and can change the distribution of rainfall and temperatures in many regions.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates that the current episode will become strong between August and October 2026. Forecasts point to above-normal temperatures across most land areas and a greater likelihood of drought in some regions, alongside heavy rainfall in others.
Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate an 81% probability that El Niño will reach the “very strong” category between October and December 2026. NOAA also estimates a 97% probability that the phenomenon will continue into early spring 2027.
WFP expects peak intensity to be reached between September and December 2026. However, the consequences for food security may continue throughout 2027, as the loss of a planting season or harvest affects supplies and farmers’ incomes for months.
Another 49 million people could face a food crisis
The WFP analysis covers 45 countries already facing food-related challenges and where El Niño could significantly affect rainfall, temperatures and the occurrence of droughts or floods.
In these countries, the number of people affected by acute food insecurity could rise from around 225 million to 274 million, an increase of approximately 22%. People in this category cannot consistently meet their daily food needs without assistance or resorting to extreme survival measures.
The largest increases are expected in the following regions:
- more than 16 million additional people at risk in Latin America and the Caribbean;
- more than 18 million in eastern and southern Africa;
- around 8.2 million in Asia and the Pacific;
- nearly 6 million in West and Central Africa.
Central America could see the largest proportional increase among the regions assessed, while countries in southern Africa are particularly vulnerable because many households depend on rain-fed agriculture.
How El Niño affects food production
El Niño does not produce the same effects everywhere. In some regions, it can reduce rainfall for several months; in others, it can bring torrential rain and flooding.
Drought reduces harvests
A lack of rainfall affects germination, plant development and crop yields. Maize, rice, wheat and other staples can suffer losses when drought periods coincide with planting, flowering or grain formation.
FAO’s analysis points to a significant risk of agricultural drought in the Sahel, southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Central America’s Dry Corridor and parts of the Caribbean. In some agricultural and pastoral areas, the probability of drought in the coming months exceeds 50%.
Floods can destroy crops and infrastructure
Excessive rainfall can be as dangerous as drought. Flooding can submerge farmland, destroy seeds and crops, erode soil and block roads used to transport food.
Storage facilities, irrigation systems and local markets can also be affected. Even in regions where agricultural production is not completely lost, the isolation of communities can cause supply problems and rapid price increases.
Livestock left without water and feed
Reduced rainfall degrades pastureland and limits water sources. Families that depend on livestock farming can lose both a source of food and their main form of savings.
FAO warns that the effects occur in a cascade: households may first lose their crops, then their livestock, income and, ultimately, their ability to buy food.
Regions at highest risk
Southern and eastern Africa
Southern Africa is particularly exposed to reduced rainfall and pasture degradation. Agriculture in many communities depends directly on rainfall, while opportunities for irrigation, savings and insurance are limited.
FAO indicates a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought across large areas of Namibia and Botswana, as well as risks in Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar.
In eastern Africa, the risks may differ. Some regions may receive above-normal rainfall, increasing the possibility of flooding, landslides and water-borne diseases.
Central America and the Caribbean
Central America’s Dry Corridor is one of the most vulnerable regions. Many families depend on small-scale crops and have limited financial reserves to withstand a poor agricultural season.
FAO estimates an approximately 70% probability of below-normal rainfall in certain parts of Central America and the Caribbean. Risks are high in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Haiti, Cuba and the Dominican Republic.
South and Southeast Asia
El Niño can weaken the monsoon in some parts of India and affect the production of rain-dependent crops, including rice and maize.
The impact on major producers and exporters could have consequences beyond the borders of the affected countries. Smaller harvests may lead to export limits, higher prices and more intense competition for supplies.
Could food prices rise?
A poor harvest in a single country does not automatically cause a global crisis. Problems arise when droughts, floods or extreme temperatures affect several major producers at the same time.
Prices can be driven up through several mechanisms:
- reduced quantities of grain available for export;
- losses of rice, maize, wheat, coffee, cocoa or sugar crops;
- higher costs for animal feed;
- increased costs of energy, transport and fertilisers;
- the introduction of temporary export restrictions;
- currency depreciation in import-dependent countries.
The countries most exposed are those that import a large share of their food and where families already spend a high proportion of their income on food.
El Niño arrives at an already difficult time
About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, while around 2.1 billion experienced some form of moderate or severe food insecurity. Although global indicators showed a slight improvement, regional differences remain very large.
Conflict, economic instability, population displacement, energy costs and reduced humanitarian funding limit the ability of many communities to cope with a new climate shock.
The UN report on food security states that the effects of El Niño in 2026 and 2027 were not included in some existing projections of hunger. These effects could therefore worsen the situation further.
What is the link to heatwaves in Europe?
El Niño is developing at a time when the oceans are already very warm and many regions are experiencing extreme temperatures. WMO estimates a high probability of above-normal temperatures across most land areas, including southern Europe, between August and October 2026.
The European context is examined in detail in InfoBuz’s analysis of the extreme heatwave affecting Europe, which explains the effects of high temperatures on agriculture, transport and the energy system.
For the local situation, see also the article on Romania’s August 2026 heatwave, the affected areas and how long it will last.
However, the simultaneous occurrence of a heatwave and El Niño does not prove that every individual episode of extreme temperature was directly caused by El Niño. Regional effects depend on interactions among several oceanic and atmospheric factors. WMO stresses that even the strongest El Niño episodes do not automatically produce the same effects in every region.
FAO and WFP call for funding for action before the crisis
FAO and WFP have launched a joint appeal for $202 million to protect around 8.8 million people in 22 countries considered priorities.
The proposed measures include distributing drought- or flood-resistant seeds, protecting livestock, building water-harvesting systems, strengthening flood-resilient infrastructure, providing financial support and issuing warnings to farmers.
The organisations estimate that every dollar invested in preventive measures can avert up to seven dollars in subsequent losses and costs. Intervening before harvests are destroyed is generally more effective and less costly than providing aid after a humanitarian crisis has begun.
What could happen in the coming months
The period from September to December 2026 will be crucial in determining the phenomenon’s peak intensity and its regional effects.
Authorities and humanitarian organisations will monitor:
- changes in Pacific temperatures;
- the onset and distribution of rainy seasons;
- soil moisture and pasture conditions;
- yields of staple crops;
- price and stock levels;
- possible trade restrictions;
- humanitarian assistance needs.
The greatest risk lies not only in El Niño’s intensity, but in its overlap with conflict, poverty, inflation and agricultural systems already affected by repeated weather events.
El Niño can turn a poor harvest into a humanitarian crisis
A powerful El Niño does not automatically mean global famine, and not every region will suffer. In some areas, additional rainfall may even temporarily improve water availability or agricultural production.
In already vulnerable countries, however, the loss of a single harvest can quickly deplete households’ reserves. Reduced production, livestock losses and higher food prices can turn a climate problem into an economic and humanitarian crisis.
Forecasts give authorities a window in which to act before the most severe effects emerge. The outcome will depend not only on the intensity of El Niño, but also on how quickly protective measures are funded and implemented.
Frequently asked questions about El Niño and the food crisis
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterised by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can alter atmospheric circulation and the distribution of rainfall in many regions of the world.
How can El Niño worsen the food crisis?
El Niño can cause drought in some regions and heavy rainfall or flooding in others. These events can destroy crops, affect pastureland, reduce access to water and disrupt food transport and supplies.
Which crops can be affected by El Niño?
Vulnerable crops include maize, rice, wheat, coffee, cocoa and sugar cane. The impact depends on the region, the intensity of the phenomenon and when drought or flooding occurs during the agricultural cycle.
Can El Niño lead to higher food prices?
Yes. Prices can rise if extreme temperatures, drought or flooding simultaneously reduce harvests in several producing countries. Higher prices may be amplified by transport, energy and fertiliser costs, or by the introduction of export restrictions.
Which regions are most exposed?
Vulnerable regions include southern and eastern Africa, Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of South and Southeast Asia. The risk is greater in countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture and food imports.
Does El Niño directly cause every heatwave?
No. El Niño can influence temperatures and atmospheric circulation worldwide, but every heatwave results from the interaction of several climate and weather factors. Not all heatwave episodes can be directly attributed to El Niño.
How long can the effects on food security last?
The effects can continue for several months after El Niño weakens. The loss of a harvest, reduced livestock numbers and higher prices can affect vulnerable households until the next agricultural season.
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